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Business Cycle Dating Committee Page - Watch NBER's Jim Poterba on CNBC Dec2009 - Sep2010.

Last Peak in U.S. Economic Activity was December 2007 and Current Trough was June 2009
Previous Peak in U.S. Economic Activity was March 2001 and Previous Trough was November 2001.

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Economic Events this Week
10/22Mon08:30AM : Sep Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
10/23Tue07:45AM : Weekly TRE-GS Store Sales Index
10/23Tue08:30AM : Oct Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Business Outlook Survey
10/23Tue09:00AM : Weekly Redbook Retail Sales Index
10/23Tue10:00AM : Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
10/24Wed07:00AM : Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
10/24Wed08:15AM : 3Q2018 ADP Workforce Vitality Index
10/24Wed10:00AM : Sep New Home Sales
10/24Wed10:30AM : Weekly U.S. Petroleum Status Report
10/24Wed02:00PM : Federal Reserve Beige Book
10/25Thu08:30AM : Sep Durable Goods Orders
10/25Thu08:30AM : Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
10/25Thu10:00AM : Sep Pending Home Sales Index
10/25Thu11:00AM : Oct Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey
10/26Fri08:30AM : 3Q2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Advance
10/26Fri10:00AM : Oct Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Latest Economic Results Provided by
Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a moderation in economic growth in September

10/22/18 - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down …more…

Existing-Home Sales fell 3.4% in September

10/19/18 - Existing-home sales declined in September after a month of stagnation in August, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw no gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.4 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.15 million in September. Sales are now down 4.1 percent from a year ago (5.37 …more…

U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in September

10/18/18 - The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in September to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.7 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly …more…

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in October

10/18/18 - Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in October, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and near their readings in September. The firms reported continued growth in employment and …more…

September Housing Starts decreased 5.3%, Permits down 0.6%

10/17/18 - Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 0.6 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the revised August rate of 1,249,000 and is 1.0 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the September 2017 rate of 1,254,000. Single‐family authorizations in …more…

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

10/17/18 - Mortgage applications decreased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 12, 2018. This week's results didn't include adjustment for the Columbus …more…

Treasury International Capital Data for August 2018

10/16/18 - The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2018. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $108.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $104.6 billion, and …more…

Job Openings reached a series high of 7.1 million in August

10/16/18 - The number of job openings reached a series high of 7.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent and the layoffs …more…

Builder Confidence rose one point to 68 in October

10/16/18 - Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in October on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have held in the high 60s since June.

“Builders are motivated by solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a generational low for unemployment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “Builders are also relieved that lumber prices have declined for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this …more…

Industrial Production increased 0.3%
Capacity Utilization unchanged at 78.1%

10/16/18 - Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September, about the same rate of change as in the previous two months. Output growth in September was held down slightly by Hurricane Florence, with an estimated effect of less than 0.1 percentage point. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production advanced at an annual rate of …more…

Monthly Meetings Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
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(Seventh & Arch St Entrance)

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Bond Club of Philadelphia - Economic Events and News

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